The Layup Line
A Series of Short Shots
Locating Value in the 2008 Draft
Most experts wanted to take last year’s draft class to the prom. She was easy on the eyes. This year’s draft class is like that girl who doesn’t catch your eye at first, but seems to get better looking as they year rolls along. By the end of the year, you fidget when she comes around and your friends tease you for liking plain Jane.
This year’s class is deceptive. It has three franchise talents at the top in Beasely, Rose and Mayo. But the best value in the draft is projected in the back half of round one and the beginning of round two. Three of those players are being described by the likes of Jonathan Givony and Chad Ford as being “ready to step in and play right now”—this draft’s Brandon Roys are Chris Douglas-Roberts, Courtney Lee, Mario Chalmers and Brandon Rush. Couple these with players like Nicolas Batum, Alexis Ajinca, Marreese Speights, J.J. Hickson and Serge Ibaka who should develop into solid rotational options for good teams, and the draft’s cup doth overfloweth.
This year’s second round offers more than one worth-watching wrinkles. First, the diminishing dollar coupled with the ability of Euroleague teams to outbid the mandated rookie pay scale has created a situation where some internationals would rather be drafted in the second round, where the rookie scale is not as restrictive. Some of the names listed above could slide there, as could Ante Tomic, Nathan Jawai, Omer Asik and Nikola Pekovic. Also available at the top of the second is at least one blue chipper in the Paul Milsap-Carl Landry mold, an overachieving but consistently productive small forward, and, perhaps, the best athlete in the draft who has an unfortunate history of knee injuries.
Taking one thing with another, I expect several teams to try to add a pick in the 20 to 35 range.
