The Layup Line
A Series of Short Shots
It’s Better to Build through Free Agents and Trades
The good folks at DX have posted an updated and sobering account of how much improved success a team should reasonably expect from the draft. The short answer is not much. The majority of drafted players never pan out, and the one’s that do are rarely selected late. Follow the link for the long answer.
The message fans should take from this is that it’s okay if your team trades out of the draft for a decent veteran or sells a pick to better its cap situation prior to the opening of the free agent market. Mr. Decent Vet may have hit his ceiling three years ago and is on the wrong side of 30, but that’s fine. Chances are he’s much better than pick #22 will ever be, and he’s certainly better than pick #22 for the next few seasons. Trading a draft pick is not necessarily tantamount to mortgaging the franchises future. Sometimes it’s more about securing the present.
This is especially true if you’re already in a championship window. Your late first round draft pick will do more to help your team slam that window shut than wedge it open. And in either case, he’s strictly along for the ride at bench’s end. He’s the guy who passes the Gatorade from the baseline towards the scorer’s table. Do you really care that much about him?
“But what about the future?”, you ask. The answer is simple. When that window begins to close, then trade your best players for promising youngsters and/or a high draft pick. Start the cycle that begins with Sam Presti and ends with Danny Ainge anew, avoiding the John Paxson Achilles heal as you go.
Reading the DraftExpress article, I couldn’t help but wonder why we affix so much value to draft picks—the value of those picks is terribly overblown.
